Immigration & Massachusetts Population Dashboard

Administration Comparison

	Obama (8yr)	Trump 1.0 (4yr)	Biden (4yr)	Trump 2.0
Encounters	~4.5M	~3.0M	~10.8M	↓84% (USBP only)†
Interior Removals	~1.8M	~0.5M	~0.6M	~340K (MPI est.)
Net Stayed	~-0.3M	~0.9M	~7.4M	TBD
Ratio In:Out	0.9:1	2.8:1	13:1	TBD
NIM (Census)	~1.0M/yr	~1.0M/yr	Peak 2.7M	1.3M→321K proj
USBP Releases	Low	Low	62K+/mo	0/mo (7 mos)

*Obama includes "returns" (voluntary). Interior-only: Obama ~1.5-2M | Trump ~0.5M | Biden ~0.15-0.6M. Trump 2.0 ICE est. from MPI FY2025.
†The first three encounter columns are multi-year totals on a total (USBP + OFO) basis; the Trump 2.0 cell is not the same quantity. CBP's FY2025 and FY2026 releases publish Border Patrol apprehensions only and omit the OFO port-of-entry component, so no total-encounters figure has been published for FY2025 and no like-for-like total comparison can be made. The 84% is Border Patrol apprehensions at the Southwest border, FY2025 (237,538) against FY2024 (1,530,523) — a fall of 84.5% on that narrower basis. A comparison on the total basis would not necessarily give the same number.

The Math

Under Biden: ~10.8M encountered nationwide. ~600K interior removals. = ~7.4M net stayed in the US.

Census Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026): NIM peaked at 2.7M in 2024, then plunged to 1.3M in 2025. Projected ~321K for 2026. US pop growth slowed to 0.5%.

Trump 2.0: FY2025 Southwest Border apprehensions fell to 237,538 — lowest since 1970 — down 84% from 1,530,523 in FY2024 (CBP). USBP recorded zero releases for eight consecutive months as of DHS's January 2026 statement.

FY2026 so far: Oct 2025–May 2026 = 61,726 Border Patrol apprehensions at the Southwest border (76,533 nationwide) over the fiscal year's first 8 months. Within that span the monthly Southwest total has risen from 7,991 in Oct 2025 to 9,998 in May 2026. CBP has not published the OFO port-of-entry component for FY2026, so no total-encounter figure exists for the year (CBP monthly tables, summed).

Southwest Land Border Encounters by Fiscal Year

Two different measures — read them separately. Total encounters = Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry plus Office of Field Operations (OFO) inadmissibles at ports of entry. USBP encounters counts the Border Patrol component only, and is therefore always the smaller of the two. Comparing a USBP bar to a total bar is not like-for-like.
Why the total series stops at FY2024: CBP's monthly releases for FY2025 and FY2026 publish Border Patrol apprehensions only and no longer report the OFO component, so no total-encounter figure has been published for FY2025 onward. The gap is left empty rather than filled with the USBP number.
Sources: FY2017–FY2024 totals and FY2017–FY2023 USBP — DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics, KHSM CBP Encounters (ohss.dhs.gov/khsm/cbp-encounters), Southwest Land Border series, rounded by OHSS to the nearest 10; last updated Feb 2025 and currently ending at FY2024. FY2024–FY2026 USBP — CBP monthly tables, summed (FY2025, FY2026). The two sources agree where they overlap: OHSS puts FY2024 USBP at 1,530,520, CBP's own months sum to 1,530,523.
Caveats: FY2020–FY2023 encounters include Title 42 expulsions (Mar 2020–May 2023); a person expelled and re-crossing was counted each time, which inflates those years relative to FY2024 onward. FY2025 = full year (Oct 2024–Sep 2025). FY2026* = Oct 2025–May 2026 only, 8 of 12 months, so its bar is a partial year and not comparable to the full years beside it.

FY2025 Final: Southwest Border total apprehensions of 237,538 — lowest since 1970, and 84% below FY2024's 1,530,523 (CBP monthly totals, summed). Zero releases by USBP across May–Nov 2025, the seven months DHS reported at the time.

Who Came In (Biden FY21-24)

Who Was Removed

Biden era: ~10.8M encountered, ~600K interior removals over 4 years = 13:1 ratio.

Trump 2.0 (FY2025): MPI estimates ~340K ICE deportations — 25% above FY2024's 271K, but below Biden's combined ICE+CBP total of 685K. Interior deportations quadrupled from pre-inauguration levels. DHS claimed 2M+ "removed or self-deported" — CMS called the self-deportation figure a "self-serving fantasy."

Census Bureau Methodology Revisions — Vintage 2024 (Dec 2024) & Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026)

Vintage 2024 (Dec 2024): Added DHS, State Dept, and IIE records. Retroactive revisions showed they had undercounted NIM by 69–102% for 2021–2023.

Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026): Further refined with DOJ immigration court data. NIM peaked at 2.7M in 2024, declined to 1.3M in 2025, projected ~321K for 2026. Total 2020–2024 NIM revised to ~8.9 million — roughly double original estimates.

US Net International Migration — The Historic Nosedive

2.7M → 1.3M → 321K: NIM peaked in 2024, then collapsed. SF Fed (Nov 2025) estimates NIM may be even lower at ~500K for 2025. Both reduced immigration and increased emigration are driving the decline. Without immigration, the US working-age population would have started declining in 2012.

Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026). SF Fed Economic Letter (Nov 2025). 2026 projection based on Census methodology + current enforcement trends.

-137,702

Residents Left

+296,081

Immigrants Arrived

+158,379

Net Migration

$1.87B

Shelter FY24-25

2,047

Families Nov 2025

⚠️ 2024-25 Changes: Immigration ↓37% (90K→57K) | Exodus ↑74% (19K→33K) | Census projects 75% more drop by 2026 | Shelter caseload ↓73% from peak

Annual Migration Pattern

The Bottom Line

137,702 residents left for other states since 2020.

296,081 immigrants arrived, covering the exodus twice over.

Without immigration, MA would have LOST ~112,000 people.

Shelter collapse: From 7,600 families (peak Jul 2024) → 2,047 (Nov 2025). Cost/family dropped from $3,496/wk → $1,182/wk. Legislature passed $425M supplemental with sweeping reforms.

Immigration is the only reason MA population grew. Now both trends are reversing.

Year-by-Year Migration Components

Year	Domestic	International	Natural	Net Total	Shelter Cost	Families in EA
2020-21	-1,762	+1,762	+6,034	+6,034	—	~2,800
2021-22	-48,000	+72,892	+5,200	+30,092	~$60M	~3,500
2022-23	-35,400	+74,610	+4,800	+44,010	~$375M	~7,500
2023-24	-19,200	+90,217	+4,500	+75,517	$894M	~7,600 peak
2024-25	-33,340	+56,600	+4,200	+27,460	$978M	↓2,047
TOTAL	-137,702	+296,081	+24,734	+183,113	$2.31B	—

Cumulative Migration Since 2020

Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025, IRS SOI Migration Data

Population Scenarios Through 2030

Scenario	Annual Δ	2030 Pop	9th Seat?
Status Quo	+40K	7.38M	✅ Safe
Immigration Halved	+6K	7.17M	✅ Safe
Immigration Stops	-33K	6.94M	✅ Safe
No Immig + Peak Exodus	-51K	6.83M	⚠️ Close
Deport + No Immig	-34K	6.63M	❌ Loses
Deport All + Exodus	-52K	6.43M	❌ Loses

H-1B Factor: MA has ~100K H-1B workers (3yr visa + 3yr extension). Peak new approvals: ~21,834/yr, now ~7,550. Each departure also removes dependents (H-4 visas), amplifying population impact on biotech, healthcare, and tech sectors.

Foreign-Born Population by City

Multilingual Population Share

Emergency Shelter Families — Top Cities (Peak 2024)

Essex County Spotlight

Lawrence: 45% foreign-born, 78.5% multilingual, 56% poverty rate for immigrant households

Lynn: 31% foreign-born, largest Central American community north of Boston

Methuen: 24% foreign-born, fastest-growing immigrant pop in Essex County

Geographic pattern: 60-mile radius of Beacon Hill. Inner-ring cities bear disproportionate burden while wealthier suburbs remain largely unaffected.

Fastest-Growing (2011–2021)

City	Change
Revere	+11pp
Boxborough	+9pp
Marlborough	+8pp
Waltham	+7pp
Framingham	+6pp

2025–26 Shelter Reforms

Reform	Change
Max Stay	9mo → 6 months
Cap	Soft 7,500 → Hard 4,000
Eligibility	Now requires MA residency + lawful status
Background	CORI checks mandatory
Hotels	Phased out by mid-2025
Cost/Family	$3,496/wk → $1,182/wk

Suffolk/Globe Poll (June 2026): More than half of Massachusetts voters (53%) have weighed leaving the state in the last year — 25% "seriously considered" it and 28% weigh it "from time to time." Top reasons: cost of living and taxes. Notably, 70%+ of respondents said they currently have enough money to live comfortably — meaning even those who can afford to stay are thinking about leaving. n=500 likely voters.

Suffolk/Globe Poll: Have You Considered Leaving MA?

Source: Suffolk University/Boston Globe, June 16, 2026 (n=500)

ACS 2024: Where They Actually Go

Source: Census ACS State-to-State Migration, 2024. Net domestic: −30,387. Only international migration (+66,158) keeps MA positive.

Why People Leave — BU Study (2024)

Tax Comparison

State	Income Tax	Sales Tax	Burden
Massachusetts	9% (flat+surtax)	6.25%	■ High
Florida	0%	6%	■ Low
New Hampshire	0%	0%	■ Low
Texas	0%	6.25%	■ Low
N. Carolina	4.5%	4.75%	■ Medium

The Vicious Cycle

High taxes→ Residents leave→ Immigration replaces→ $1.87B shelters→ More taxes→ 🔄

$14.5T

Cato Surplus Claim

$9.2B

CBO State/Local Cost

$1.87B

MA Shelter FY24-25

$96.7B

Undoc Tax Payments

Central Contradiction: Cato/NASEM claims $14.5T cumulative federal surplus (1994-2023) from immigrants. CBO simultaneously finds $9.2B net cost to state/local governments in 2023 alone. Both are true — because costs concentrate at state/local level while taxes flow to the federal government.

Federal vs State/Local Mismatch

Cato Paper Claims — Fact Check

Claim	Verdict
$14.5T cumulative surplus	⚠️ Lumps legal+illegal
81% from college grads	✅ Verified (NASEM)
44% less likely incarcerated	✅ Verified (Cato/BJS)
Every year net positive	⚠️ Federal only
Noncitizens: $6.3T of $14.5T	✅ Verified
Doesn't separate legal/illegal	❌ Deliberate omission

Legal vs Illegal — Net Fiscal Impact

Key finding: Legal immigrants are net positive at all government levels. Illegal immigrants are net negative at state/local level, where costs for education, healthcare, and shelter concentrate.

ITEP (2024): Undocumented immigrants pay $96.7B in total taxes — including $25.7B in payroll taxes to Social Security they will never collect.

MA Emergency Shelter Spending Timeline

FY24 Actual: $894M

FY25 Actual: $978M

FY26 Budget: $276M (down 72%)

Caseload collapse: From ~7,600 families (Jul 2024 peak) → ~2,047 (Nov 2025) = 73% decrease. Cost/family dropped from $3,496/wk → $1,182/wk as hotels phased out.

Shelter Families Over Time

Legislative Reforms (Feb 2025 — $425M Supplemental)

Reform	Old Rule	New Rule
Max Stay	9 months + extensions	6 months, hardship only
Capacity Cap	Soft 7,500	Hard 4,000 (Dec 2025–Dec 2026)
Eligibility	Presumptive (verify later)	Verify during application
Requirements	None	MA residency + lawful status + CORI
Hotels/Motels	~50% of placements	Phased out by mid-2025
Procurement	Direct contracts	Competitive bidding required
Income Cap	None	>200% FPL for 3+ months = ineligible

Regressive Burden — Who Pays as % of Income

Bottom line: Working poor pay 2.1% of income toward immigration costs. Wealthy households pay 0.13%. The burden is deeply regressive — a 16:1 ratio. The communities bearing the heaviest costs (Chelsea, Lawrence, Lynn) also have the lowest per-capita property tax bases in Massachusetts.

All Data Sources & Citations

Federal Data

• CBP: cbp.gov/newsroom/stats
• Census Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026)
• CBO: cbo.gov (June 2025)
• DHS OHSS: ohss.dhs.gov
• IRS SOI: irs.gov/statistics
• ICE ERO: ice.gov/statistics
• SF Fed Economic Letter (Nov 2025)
• House Homeland Security Committee

Research

• Cato/NASEM White Paper (2025)
• ITEP Tax Contributions (2024)
• MPI FY2025 Deportation Estimates
• TRAC Syracuse (FOIA data)
• Deportation Data Project
• BU Finance Study (2024)
• CIS/FAIR Cost Estimates
• Pew Research Center

Massachusetts

• EOHLC Shelter Data / Biweekly Reports
• MA Legislature ($425M Supplemental)
• MA State Auditor Reports
• MA DTA (SNAP/Welfare)
• MassHealth Enrollment
• MIRA Coalition
• WBUR / Boston Herald
• Suffolk/Globe Poll (June 2026, n=500)
• Census ACS State-to-State Migration (2024)
• Tax Foundation Rankings