Immigration & Massachusetts Population Dashboard

Administration Comparison

	Obama (8yr)	Trump 1.0 (4yr)	Biden (4yr)	Trump 2.0
Encounters	~4.5M	~3.0M	~10.8M	↓79%
Deportations	2.6M*	~0.5M	~0.6M	TBD
Net Stayed	~-0.3M	~0.9M	~7.4M	TBD
Ratio In:Out	0.9:1	2.8:1	13:1	TBD

*Obama includes "returns" (voluntary). Interior-only: Obama ~1.5-2M | Trump ~0.5M | Biden ~0.15-0.6M

The Math

Under Biden: ~10.8M encountered nationwide. ~600K interior removals. = ~7.4M net stayed in the US.

Census confirms: Net international migration of 2.8M in 2024 alone — a record. 84% of all US population growth was from immigration.

Trump 2.0: FY2025 SWB encounters dropped to 237,538 (Oct-Feb) — lowest pace since 1970.

Southwest Border Encounters by Fiscal Year

Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Includes apprehensions + inadmissibles. FY2025 is Oct 2024 – Jan 2025 (partial).

Who Came In (Biden FY21-24)

Who Was Removed

Bottom line: ~10.8M encountered, ~600K interior removals over 4 years = 13:1 ratio. For every 1 person deported from the interior, 13+ entered and stayed.

Census Bureau Methodology Revision — December 2024

What happened: In Dec 2024, Census released "Vintage 2024" with new methodology adding DHS, State Dept, and IIE records. Retroactive revisions showed they had undercounted by 69–102%.

US Net International Migration — Historic Decline

Source: Census Bureau. 2025 proj based on FY2025 CBP pace (237K encounters Oct-Jan, annualized).

-137,702

Residents Left

+296,081

Immigrants Arrived

+158,379

Net Migration

$1.83B

Shelter FY24-25

⚠️ 2024-25 Changes: Immigration ↓37% (90K→57K) | Exodus ↑74% (19K→33K) | Census projects 75% more drop by 2026

Annual Migration Pattern

The Bottom Line

137,702 residents left for other states since 2020.

296,081 immigrants arrived, covering the exodus twice over.

Without immigration, MA would have LOST ~112,000 people.

Immigration is the only reason MA population grew. Now both trends are reversing.

Year-by-Year Migration Components

Year	Domestic	International	Natural	Net Total	Shelter Cost
2020-21	-1,762	+1,762	+6,034	+6,034	—
2021-22	-48,000	+72,892	+5,200	+30,092	~$60M
2022-23	-35,400	+74,610	+4,800	+44,010	~$375M
2023-24	-19,200	+90,217	+4,500	+75,517	$855M
2024-25	-33,340	+56,600	+4,200	+27,460	$978M
TOTAL	-137,702	+296,081	+24,734	+183,113	$2.27B

Cumulative Migration Since 2020

Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025, IRS SOI Migration Data

Population Scenarios Through 2030

Scenario	Annual Δ	2030 Pop	9th Seat?
Status Quo	+40K	7.38M	✅ Safe
Immigration Halved	+6K	7.17M	✅ Safe
Immigration Stops	-33K	6.94M	✅ Safe
No Immig + Peak Exodus	-51K	6.83M	⚠️ Close
Deport + No Immig	-34K	6.63M	❌ Loses
Deport All + Exodus	-52K	6.43M	❌ Loses

Foreign-Born Population by City

Multilingual Population Share

Emergency Shelter Families — Top Cities

Essex County Spotlight

Lawrence: 35% foreign-born, 78.5% multilingual, 56% poverty rate for immigrant households

Lynn: 31% foreign-born, largest Central American community north of Boston

Methuen: 23% foreign-born, fastest-growing immigrant pop in Essex County

Geographic pattern: 60-mile radius of Beacon Hill. Inner-ring cities bear disproportionate burden while wealthier suburbs remain largely unaffected.

Fastest-Growing (2011–2021)

City	Change
Revere	+11pp
Boxborough	+9pp
Marlborough	+8pp
Waltham	+7pp
Framingham	+6pp

Why People Leave — BU Study (2024)

Tax Comparison

State	Income Tax	Sales Tax	Burden
Massachusetts	9% (flat+surtax)	6.25%	■ High
Florida	0%	6%	■ Low
New Hampshire	0%	0%	■ Low
Texas	0%	6.25%	■ Low
N. Carolina	4.5%	4.75%	■ Medium

The Vicious Cycle

High taxes→ Residents leave→ Immigration replaces→ $1.83B shelters→ More taxes→ 🔄

$14.5T

Cato Surplus Claim

$9.2B

CBO State/Local Cost

$2.27B

MA Annual Cost

$96.7B

Undoc Tax Payments

Central Contradiction: Cato/NASEM claims $14.5T cumulative federal surplus (1994-2023) from immigrants. CBO simultaneously finds $9.2B net cost to state/local governments in 2023 alone. Both are true — because costs concentrate at state/local level while taxes flow to the federal government.

Federal vs State/Local Mismatch

Cato Paper Claims — Fact Check

Claim	Verdict
$14.5T cumulative surplus	⚠️ Lumps legal+illegal
81% from college grads	✅ Verified (NASEM)
44% less likely incarcerated	✅ Verified (Cato/BJS)
Every year net positive	⚠️ Federal only
Noncitizens: $6.3T of $14.5T	✅ Verified
Doesn't separate legal/illegal	❌ Deliberate omission

Legal vs Illegal — Net Fiscal Impact

Key finding: Legal immigrants are net positive at all government levels. Illegal immigrants are net negative at state/local level, where costs for education, healthcare, and shelter concentrate.

MA Emergency Shelter Spending Timeline

FY24 Actual: $855M

FY25 Actual: $978M

FY26 Budget: $276M (down 72%)

Cost per family: $3,496/week ($181,792/year). MA Auditor found billing irregularities in 15% of sampled invoices.

Regressive Burden — Who Pays as % of Income

Bottom line: Working poor pay 2.1% of income toward immigration costs. Wealthy households pay 0.13%. The burden is deeply regressive.

All Data Sources & Citations

Federal Data

• CBP: cbp.gov/newsroom/stats
• Census: census.gov
• CBO: cbo.gov (June 2025)
• DHS OHSS: ohss.dhs.gov
• IRS SOI: irs.gov/statistics
• ICE: ice.gov/statistics

Research

• Cato/NASEM White Paper (2025)
• ITEP Tax Contributions (2024)
• TRAC Syracuse (FOIA data)
• BU Finance Study (2024)
• CIS/FAIR Cost Estimates
• Pew Research Center

Massachusetts

• EOHLC Shelter Data
• MA DTA (SNAP/Welfare)
• MassHealth Enrollment
• MA DOC (Criminal Justice)
• WBUR/Boston Herald
• MA State Auditor Reports