Immigration & Massachusetts Population Dashboard

Administration Comparison

	Obama (8yr)	Trump 1.0 (4yr)	Biden (4yr)	Trump 2.0
Encounters	~4.5M	~3.0M	~10.8M	↓79%
Interior Removals	~1.8M	~0.5M	~0.6M	~340K (MPI est.)
Net Stayed	~-0.3M	~0.9M	~7.4M	TBD
Ratio In:Out	0.9:1	2.8:1	13:1	TBD
NIM (Census)	~1.0M/yr	~1.0M/yr	Peak 2.7M	1.3M→321K proj
USBP Releases	Low	Low	62K+/mo	0/mo (7 mos)

*Obama includes "returns" (voluntary). Interior-only: Obama ~1.5-2M | Trump ~0.5M | Biden ~0.15-0.6M. Trump 2.0 ICE est. from MPI FY2025.

The Math

Under Biden: ~10.8M encountered nationwide. ~600K interior removals. = ~7.4M net stayed in the US.

Census Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026): NIM peaked at 2.7M in 2024, then plunged to 1.3M in 2025. Projected ~321K for 2026. US pop growth slowed to 0.5%.

Trump 2.0: FY2025 SWB encounters dropped to 237,538 — lowest since 1970 (79% below FY2024). Zero USBP releases for 7+ consecutive months.

FY2026 start: Oct+Nov 2025 = 60,940 total encounters nationwide — 28% below the previous record-low FY start (FY2012). Nov 2025 alone: 30,375 (↓92% from Biden peak of 370,883).

Southwest Border Encounters by Fiscal Year

Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection. FY2025 = full year (Oct 2024–Sep 2025). FY2026* = Oct–Nov 2025 only.

FY2025 Final: SWB USBP apprehensions of 237,538 = lowest since 1970, 79% below FY2024. Zero releases by USBP for 7 consecutive months (May–Nov 2025).

Who Came In (Biden FY21-24)

Who Was Removed

Biden era: ~10.8M encountered, ~600K interior removals over 4 years = 13:1 ratio.

Trump 2.0 (FY2025): MPI estimates ~340K ICE deportations — 25% above FY2024's 271K, but below Biden's combined ICE+CBP total of 685K. Interior deportations quadrupled from pre-inauguration levels.

Census Bureau Methodology Revisions — Vintage 2024 (Dec 2024) & Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026)

Vintage 2024 (Dec 2024): Added DHS, State Dept, and IIE records. Retroactive revisions showed they had undercounted NIM by 69–102% for 2021–2023.

Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026): Further refined with DOJ immigration court data. NIM peaked at 2.7M in 2024, declined to 1.3M in 2025, projected ~321K for 2026. Total 2020–2024 NIM revised to ~8.9 million — roughly double original estimates.

US Net International Migration — The Historic Nosedive

2.7M → 1.3M → 321K: NIM peaked in 2024, then collapsed. SF Fed (Nov 2025) estimates NIM may be even lower at ~500K for 2025. Both reduced immigration and increased emigration are driving the decline. Without immigration, the US working-age population would have started declining in 2012.

Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026). SF Fed Economic Letter (Nov 2025). 2026 projection based on Census methodology + current enforcement trends.

-137,702

Residents Left

+296,081

Immigrants Arrived

+158,379

Net Migration

$1.87B

Shelter FY24-25

2,047

Families Nov 2025

⚠️ 2024-25 Changes: Immigration ↓37% (90K→57K) | Exodus ↑74% (19K→33K) | Census projects 75% more drop by 2026 | Shelter caseload ↓73% from peak

Annual Migration Pattern

The Bottom Line

137,702 residents left for other states since 2020.

296,081 immigrants arrived, covering the exodus twice over.

Without immigration, MA would have LOST ~112,000 people.

Income quality gap: IRS data shows people leaving MA earn 29% more on average than those arriving — meaning the population is technically growing, but the tax base is being diluted. → See Tax Dashboard

Shelter collapse: From 7,600 families (peak Jul 2024) → 2,047 (Nov 2025). Cost/family dropped from $3,496/wk → $1,182/wk.

Year-by-Year Migration Components

Year	Domestic	International	Natural	Net Total	Shelter Cost	Families in EA
2020-21	-1,762	+1,762	+6,034	+6,034	—	~2,800
2021-22	-48,000	+72,892	+5,200	+30,092	~$60M	~3,500
2022-23	-35,400	+74,610	+4,800	+44,010	~$375M	~7,500
2023-24	-19,200	+90,217	+4,500	+75,517	$894M	~7,600 peak
2024-25	-33,340	+56,600	+4,200	+27,460	$978M	↓2,047
TOTAL	-137,702	+296,081	+24,734	+183,113	$2.31B	—

Cumulative Migration Since 2020

Source: Census Bureau Vintage 2025, IRS SOI Migration Data

Population Scenarios Through 2030

Scenario	Annual Δ	2030 Pop	9th Seat?
Status Quo	+40K	7.38M	✅ Safe
Immigration Halved	+6K	7.17M	✅ Safe
Immigration Stops	-33K	6.94M	✅ Safe
No Immig + Peak Exodus	-51K	6.83M	⚠️ Close
Deport + No Immig	-34K	6.63M	❌ Loses
Deport All + Exodus	-52K	6.43M	❌ Loses

H-1B Factor: MA has ~100K H-1B workers. Peak new approvals: ~21,834/yr, now ~7,550. Each departure also removes dependents, amplifying population impact on biotech, healthcare, and tech sectors.

The Double Cliff (2027): If immigration continues falling just as 2023-24 IRS migration data confirms sustained high-earner outflow, Massachusetts could face its first significant absolute population decline — and a 9th Congressional seat loss. → See High-Earner Trends tab

Foreign-Born Population by City

Multilingual Population Share

Emergency Shelter Families — Top Cities (Peak 2024)

Essex County Spotlight

Lawrence: 35% foreign-born, 78.5% multilingual, 56% poverty rate for immigrant households

Lynn: 31% foreign-born, largest Central American community north of Boston

Methuen: 23% foreign-born, fastest-growing immigrant pop in Essex County

Geographic pattern: 60-mile radius of Beacon Hill. Inner-ring cities bear disproportionate burden while wealthier suburbs remain largely unaffected — and those suburbs are where most departing high-earners live.

Fastest-Growing (2011–2021)

City	Change
Revere	+11pp
Boxborough	+9pp
Marlborough	+8pp
Waltham	+7pp
Framingham	+6pp

2025–26 Shelter Reforms

Reform	Change
Max Stay	9mo → 6 months
Cap	Soft 7,500 → Hard 4,000
Eligibility	Now requires MA residency + lawful status
Background	CORI checks mandatory
Hotels	Phased out by mid-2025
Cost/Family	$3,496/wk → $1,182/wk

Why People Leave — BU Study (2024)

Tax Comparison

State	Income Tax	Sales Tax	Burden
Massachusetts	9% (flat+surtax)	6.25%	■ High
Florida	0%	6%	■ Low
New Hampshire	0%	0%	■ Low
Texas	0%	6.25%	■ Low
N. Carolina	4.5%	4.75%	■ Medium

The Vicious Cycle

High taxes→ High earners leave
(29% richer than arrivals)→ Immigration replaces
(lower avg income)→ $1.87B shelters→ More taxes→ 🔄

The 29% income premium for leavers is from IRS SOI 2022-23 migration data. Full analysis →

$14.5T

Cato Surplus Claim

$9.2B

CBO State/Local Cost

$1.87B

MA Shelter FY24-25

$96.7B

Undoc Tax Payments

Central Contradiction: Cato/NASEM claims $14.5T cumulative federal surplus (1994-2023) from immigrants. CBO simultaneously finds $9.2B net cost to state/local governments in 2023 alone. Both are true — because costs concentrate at state/local level while taxes flow to the federal government.

Federal vs State/Local Mismatch

Cato Paper Claims — Fact Check

Claim	Verdict
$14.5T cumulative surplus	⚠️ Lumps legal+illegal
81% from college grads	✅ Verified (NASEM)
44% less likely incarcerated	✅ Verified (Cato/BJS)
Every year net positive	⚠️ Federal only
Noncitizens: $6.3T of $14.5T	✅ Verified
Doesn't separate legal/illegal	❌ Deliberate omission

Legal vs Illegal — Net Fiscal Impact

Key finding: Legal immigrants are net positive at all government levels. Illegal immigrants are net negative at state/local level, where costs for education, healthcare, and shelter concentrate.

ITEP (2024): Undocumented immigrants pay $96.7B in total taxes — including $25.7B in payroll taxes to Social Security they will never collect.

MA Emergency Shelter Spending Timeline

FY24 Actual: $894M

FY25 Actual: $978M

FY26 Budget: $276M (down 72%)

Caseload collapse: From ~7,600 families (Jul 2024 peak) → ~2,047 (Nov 2025) = 73% decrease. Cost/family dropped from $3,496/wk → $1,182/wk as hotels phased out.

Shelter Families Over Time

Legislative Reforms (Feb 2025 — $425M Supplemental)

Reform	Old Rule	New Rule
Max Stay	9 months + extensions	6 months, hardship only
Capacity Cap	Soft 7,500	Hard 4,000 (Dec 2025–Dec 2026)
Eligibility	Presumptive (verify later)	Verify during application
Requirements	None	MA residency + lawful status + CORI
Hotels/Motels	~50% of placements	Phased out by mid-2025
Procurement	Direct contracts	Competitive bidding required
Income Cap	None	>200% FPL for 3+ months = ineligible

Regressive Burden — Who Pays as % of Income

Bottom line: Working poor pay 2.1% of income toward immigration costs. Wealthy households pay 0.13%. The burden is deeply regressive — a 16:1 ratio. The communities bearing the heaviest costs (Chelsea, Lawrence, Lynn) also have the lowest per-capita property tax bases in Massachusetts.

All Data Sources & Citations

Federal Data

• CBP: cbp.gov/newsroom/stats
• Census Vintage 2025 (Jan 2026)
• CBO: cbo.gov (June 2025)
• DHS OHSS: ohss.dhs.gov
• IRS SOI: irs.gov/statistics
• ICE ERO: ice.gov/statistics
• SF Fed Economic Letter (Nov 2025)
• House Homeland Security Committee

Research

• Cato/NASEM White Paper (2025)
• ITEP Tax Contributions (2024)
• MPI FY2025 Deportation Estimates
• TRAC Syracuse (FOIA data)
• Deportation Data Project
• BU Finance Study (2024)
• CIS/FAIR Cost Estimates
• Pew Research Center

Massachusetts

• EOHLC Shelter Data / Biweekly Reports
• MA Legislature ($425M Supplemental)
• MA State Auditor Reports
• MA DTA (SNAP/Welfare)
• MassHealth Enrollment
• MIRA Coalition
• WBUR / Boston Herald
• Tax Foundation Rankings