🏢 Trepp · C&W · Colliers · Newmark Data

Boston Commercial Real Estate

Office vacancy, CMBS delinquencies, property sales, and tax impact

Office Vacancy (Q4 2025)

18.2%

C&W — up from 7.5% pre-COVID

CMBS Office Delinquency

11.0%

National — historic high (end 2024)

Life Sciences Vacancy

30%+

Once Boston's competitive edge

Sale Discounts

31–62%

Major 2025 property sales vs. prior value

Commercial Real Estate Overview

Boston's office market has more than doubled its vacancy rate since 2019

⚠️ Vacancy Has More Than Doubled

7.5% (2019) → 18.2% (Q4 2025) — a 143% increase

Cushman & Wakefield Q4 2025 Boston MarketBeat

⚠️ Life Sciences Collapse

Life sciences vacancy exceeds 30% — layoffs persist, job postings declining

Newmark Q4 2025 — once Boston's strongest sector now a liability

Office Vacancy Trajectory

Boston overall vacancy, 2019–Q4 2025

Vacancy by Source

Different brokerages, different methodologies — same trend

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Early stabilization signal: Q4 2025 saw Boston's first quarter of positive net absorption since early 2021 (Newmark). Vacancy ticked up only 10 bps QoQ. But recovery to pre-pandemic levels could take well over a decade at current absorption rates.

Vacancy Deep Dive

Class A vs B divide, life sciences collapse, and the flight to quality

Class A Vacancy

~16%

Pre-COVID

Rent Trend

Holding (w/ concessions)

Class B Vacancy

~22%

Pre-COVID

8.3%

Rents

Off 15%+ from peak

Life Sciences

30%+

Was Boston's Edge

Now a liability

Biotech Layoffs

Continuing

Class A vs. Class B Vacancy

The flight-to-quality gap is widening

National Comparison

Boston vs. national and peer cities

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Class B asking rents are off 15%+ from peak. Meanwhile, Class A rents appear stable — but that masks aggressive concessions (free rent months, TI allowances). The real effective rent decline is steeper than the headline numbers suggest.

CMBS & Financial Distress

Office CMBS delinquency hit 11% — a historic high — with $950B in loans maturing in 2025

⚠️ CMBS Office Delinquency at Historic High

11.01% — end of 2024 (up from 1.6% pre-COVID)

Overall CRE CMBS delinquency: 6.57%, up from 4.51% end of 2023

CMBS Delinquency Trend

Office sector — spiraling since 2022

CRE Loan Maturities

$2.3 trillion maturing through 2028

Bank CRE Lending

-58%

vs Pre-Pandemic

Office: -65%

Office Values

-14% (2024)

Expected 2025

-26% more

Loans Maturing (2025)

$950B

Refinancing

At higher rates

Major Boston Property Sales

Distressed sales revealing the true extent of value destruction

Sale Discounts from Prior Value

Major Boston office transactions, 2024–2025

Boston vs. National Sale Trends

Average office sale price per sq ft

Property	Sale Price	Prior Value	Discount
One Lincoln Street	$440M	$640M	-31%
100 Federal Street	$230M	$415M	-45%
One Post Office Square	$200M	$395M	-49%
One Boston Place	$112M	$293M	-62%

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One Boston Place lost 62% of its value — selling for $112M after being valued at $293M. These aren't outliers. The national average decline for office properties is approximately 37% from peak values.

Property Tax Revenue Impact

Boston depends on property tax for ~73% of its revenue — commercial values are collapsing

⚠️ Boston's Fiscal Vulnerability

~73% of city revenue comes from property taxes

As commercial property values decline, the tax burden shifts to residential owners

City Revenue Composition

Boston's dependence on property tax

Commercial Assessment Impact

Before and after revaluation examples

Overassessment Claims

$545M

Buildings Affected

39 properties

Allegation

Retaliatory overvaluation

Tax Shift Risk

→ Residential

If Commercial Drops

Homeowners pay more

Recovery Timeline

10+ years

At Current Pace

To pre-pandemic levels

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If commercial property values continue declining, Boston faces a structural budget crisis. The city either cuts services, raises residential property taxes, or finds new revenue sources. A free-market group has alleged the city is already overassessing 39 buildings by $545M to prop up revenue.